Blogger Jon Fortt at Business 2.0 (you know you’re old when you remember when the magazine was called The Net) has a substantial and intriguing position on the iPhone: license the platform. The prediction is rather ominous:

I predict Apple has three years to decide whether to license the iPhone platform and be a market leader in Internet-connected phones or keep it and be a niche player. Five at the most.

This assertion is based on the author’s belief that if Apple doesn’t license it, someone else is just going to knock it off and Apple will have missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime. The mobile phone industry, he holds, is too fierce to let Apple dominate for long as both a software and hardware supplier.

I’m a little skeptical of this viewpoint, for a variety of reasons.
One of these reasons is patents. We’re all aware of the hullabaloo that has surrounded Apple and iPhone legal issues, as well as Apple’s claim of over 200 patents related to the iPhone (and its interface). One way or another, it’s a potentially very litigious situation for any company to try and swipe the iPhone interface.

Beyond the legal aspect, it’s not like Apple hasn’t had experience in tough industries before. Yes, the mobile phone business is brutal, but the PC business isn’t exactly open mic night, either. If copying an interface was so easy, the Mac OS wouldn’t be consistently outpacing the competition in ease of use and quality user experience. Even Microsoft, with all its vast resources and amazingly talented programmers, has had a hard time keeping up with Apple, yet we’re supposed to believe that several smaller companies will catch Apple in 3-5 years? It’s not like Apple is going to be standing still, either. The iPhone will be improving, along with the competition, creating a moving target for them to try and approximate.

Last, it’s not just that Apple’s a hardware company, it’s that they’re a company that sells the whole widget, which is likely part of the reason they’re going with only one carrier. Apple wants to insure the user experience in every way, not leaving to chance that a shoddy company will license the platform or that a poor carrier will leave users frustrated with their iPhone. Yes, it’s controlling of them, but it’s the fact that everything is self-contained that allows them to create such a good experience for the user.

Sure, it’s unlikely the iPhone will achieve such an overwhelmingly dominant share of the phone market as Apple has with the MP3 player market, but Apple is hardly dooming themselves to obscurity with their current strategy. They’ve played the beleaguered underdog role a long time and know how to make a compelling product that people will buy.

Filed under: iPhone News, Opinion