We keep a pretty close eye on the world of technology news–and Apple news in particular here–so it’s possible we’re particularly attuned to this sort of thing, but it seems like every other day there’s a new survey, poll, or fact-finding mission regarding the iPhone and its chances of success. Without turning this space into a remedial statistics class (we’re not the Standard Deviation Zone, after all), there seems to be one common denominator to most of the research being done: it’s lousy.

You often get the impression that these guys are standing on a street corner for an hour with a Honk if you think you you’d like to buy an iPhone sign as their means of gathering data. For example, in today’s results released by Markitecture, they surveyed a “nationally representative” group of 1300 people who own their own cell phones and pay their monthly bill: that is, no cell phone users who have their phone paid for by parents or their employer. We’re not going to talk about the pitifully small sample size here–we had an agreement not to talk in technical terms–but how is a sample representative if it doesn’t include the huge market of teenagers and professionals whose phones are paid for by their employer? A significant number of smart phone users choose their own phones, but have them paid for by their employer. Additionally, only three weeks ago we were told teens will be buying the iPhone in droves.

Let’s be generous and take Markitecture’s number: 6 percent of people who own a cell phone and pay for its service will buy it. There are over 200 million cell phone users in the United States, making for 12 million iPhones at that rate. Apple is hoping to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, a number that some analysts thought to be quite ambitious. Pundits are using this as an opportunity to show the failure of the iPhone, despite the fact that it shows an incredible level of interest in the product.

Just to be fair, the problem isn’t just with numbers that get framed negatively in the press; we’re just as skeptical about reports of 25 percent of teenagers definitely buying an iPhone when the data comes from 500 teenagers at Beverly Hills High. The point is simply not too get to jubilant or too negative, but keep things in perspective.

Filed under: iPhone News, Opinion