Two years ago, the original iPhone launch was a big deal, but was a little bit under-the-radar as far as popular culture was concerned. A year ago, the iPhone 3G launch made major nationwide news as lines formed weeks early in New York, and blocks-long lines formed across the country on launch weekend as customers clamored for Apple’s latest wonder. This year, financial analysts are predicting in the neighborhood of 500,000 units being sold this weekend alone.

But will the iPhone 3GS debut tomorrow come close to matching the frenzy seen a year ago? Our smart money is on an emphatic no, for five big reasons:

One: online and in-person-pickup pre-orders were not an option a year ago because AT&T required in-store activation for the launch period, before changing that policy later. So for every iPhone 3GS that will be arriving directly from Asian factories via FedEx directly to a customer’s door, that’s one less person in line at the mall or camped out in front of an AT&T store. These presale efforts have now sold out at both AT&T online and the Apple Store online, in addition to AT&T’s allotment of in-person preorders that available at each of its 2,100 U.S. retail locations, so plenty of people have taken advantage of this option.

Two: the 3GS is getting great reviews, but it’s not the huge step forward that the 3G was over the original iPhone. Let’s boil it down: the 3GS is faster, adds video, a compass, and voice control. It’s a great evolutionary step, but is less exciting than the 3G.

Three: because the original iPhone wasn’t subsidized, early adopters of that model were allowed to purchase the iPhone 3G at a subsidized price immediately upon launch, as long as they signed a new two year contract with AT&T. This time around, the vast majority of iPhone 3G adopters who bought a year ago are not able to upgrade at the lowest price until December of this year, 18 months into their 24 month contract. Hundreds of thousands of customers will be apt to wait that period out to save the couple hundred dollars’ difference, whereas there was no restriction a year ago.

Four: This one is just a guess–Apple and AT&T will (hopefully) be better prepared for the technical challenge of the onslaught of tens of thousands of simultaneous activations of the 3GS model throughout the launch weekend. They weren’t at all prepared a year ago and it caused further delays in already long lines at retail outlets. A smooth purchase process will ensure that people flow through the stores quickly, keeping the circus at bay.

Five: The economy sucks more this year than last. $199 (or $299, or $399, etc) is still a lot of money for a phone, especially when you’re signing on the dotted line committing yourself to about $2400 in service fees to AT&T over two years. Simply put, people can afford to snap up an iPhone less this year than before.

But, don’t get us wrong–we’re excited for the launch and Apple’s going to sell a LOT of iPhones this weekend–but we think a whole lot of units will be picked up early via pre-order, dropped off by FedEx, or deferred to a later purchase date.

Filed under: iPhone News, Opinion, Wireless